Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
