How This Strange Campaign Shattered the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.
In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.
Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers rising together. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!
The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.
After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.
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